The most interesting insight for me was that future threat to the EU will not come from the East but from the South. Putin, according to Stefan Lehne, is a rational actor and as with all rational actors he will ratchet up the temperature but does not a big way. Too much money and too many houses owned by wealthy Russians in London make it very difficult for Putin to act without any regard. If the a plus-zero actor (EU) and a Zero-sum actor (Russia) have competition, it seems Russia will win according to game theory.
Ernst-Sucharipa-Memorial-Lecture given by Stefan Lehne (Ambassador; former Director General, Political Affairs, Austrian Ministry for European and International Affairs; Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Europe, Brussels).
Diplomatic Academy of Vienna